Brent: Conflict scenarios keep prices elevated – Societe Generale

Societe Generale’s Commodity Compass Analytics (CCA) team, led by Michael Haigh, Ben Hoff and Jeremy Sellem, highlights that Dated Brent at $141/bbl reflects severe physical tightness as Strait of Hormuz flows remain impaired. Societe Generale’s Commodity Compass Analytics (CCA) team, led by Michael Haigh, Ben Hoff and Jeremy Sellem, highlights that Dated Brent at $141/bbl reflects severe physical… Societe Generale’s Commodity Compass Analytics (CCA) team, led by Michael Haigh, Ben Hoff and Jeremy Sellem, highlights that Dated Brent at $141/bbl reflects severe physical tightness as Strait of Hormuz flows remain impaired. Societe Generale’s Commodity Compass Analytics (CCA) team, led by Michael Haigh, Ben Hoff and Jeremy Sellem, highlights that Dated Brent at $141/bbl reflects severe physical tightness as Strait of Hormuz flows remain impaired. Their scenario work maps outcomes from controlled escalation to prolonged conflict and chokepoint closures, with Brent prices ranging from around $125/bbl to potentially above $200/bbl and only gradual normalisation of inventories into late 2026.Oil shock scenarios and… For traders, this matters because commodity headlines often feed directly into inflation expectations, sector rotation and currency pricing. Watch follow-through, not just the first reaction: liquidity, volatility and confirmation across related assets usually tell the real story.