Ceasefire may reduce case for Fed cuts as inflation risks persist: Timiraos

The shift in Fed risk calculus is modestly hawkish, with reduced recession risk lowering the urgency for cuts. Markets may need to reprice easing expectations if inflation proves sticky, supporting yields and the USD at the margin. Ceasefire may delay Fed cuts as inflation risks outlast growth concernsSummary:Timiraos: ceasefire shifts Fed risk calculus Markets pricing slightly higher odds… Ceasefire may delay Fed cuts as inflation risks outlast growth concerns . Summary: . Timiraos: ceasefire shifts Fed risk calculus Markets pricing slightly higher odds of cuts End of conflict remove... Ceasefire may delay Fed cuts as inflation risks outlast growth concerns Summary: Timiraos: ceasefire shifts Fed risk calculus Markets pricing slightly higher odds of cuts End of conflict removes key growth downside risk Weak growth argument for easing diminished Inflation risks remain elevated Energy and goods prices unlikely to fully reverse Financial conditions easing on optimism Labour market remains resilient Near-term case for Fed cuts weakened The ceasefire between the… For traders, releases like this can quickly shift rate expectations, currency direction, index futures and broad risk sentiment. Watch the next move in the dollar, front-end yields and index futures to see whether the market prices this release as a true surprise or only a passing headline.