US: Slowing spending under Oil shock – TD Securities
News brief
TD Securities’ Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir highlight that US consumer momentum is weakening, with real spending barely growing into early 2026 and creating a soft base for Q1. They project slower quarterly consumption growth but a firmer year-on-year pace, with tax refunds helping more in Q2.
Why traders care
For traders, this matters because commodity headlines often feed directly into inflation expectations, sector rotation and currency pricing.
What to watch next
- Watch follow-through, not just the first reaction: liquidity, volatility and confirmation across related assets usually tell the real story.
TD Securities’ Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir highlight that US consumer momentum is weakening, with real spending barely growing into early 2026 and creating a soft base for Q1. They project slower quarterly consumption growth but a firmer year-on-year pace, with tax refunds helping more in Q2. For traders, this matters because commodity headlines often feed directly into inflation expectations, sector rotation and currency pricing. Watch follow-through, not just the first reaction: liquidity, volatility and confirmation across related assets usually tell the real story.
