ECB scenarios highlight a disasterous inflation scenario if 60% of Hormuz flows blocked

ECB's Middle East war scenarios deserve closer scrutiny ECB President Christine Lagarde earlier highlighted ECB March staff projections and the baseline showed growth revised down to 0.9% for 2026, headline inflation revised up to 2.6% on the back of the energy shock. But the baseline isn't where the most important information lies.The alternative scenarios were just released and… ECB President Christine Lagarde earlier highlighted ECB March staff projections and the baseline showed growth revised down to 0.9% for 2026, headline inflation revised up to 2. ECB President Christine Lagarde earlier highlighted ECB March staff projections and the baseline showed growth revised down to 0.9% for 2026, headline inflation revised up to 2.6% on the back of the energy shock. But the baseline isn't where the most important information lies. The alternative scenarios were just released and offer some insight on tail risks and, crucially, how they believe large energy shocks transmit through the economy. The… For traders, releases like this can quickly shift rate expectations, currency direction, index futures and broad risk sentiment. Watch the next move in the dollar, front-end yields and index futures to see whether the market prices this release as a true surprise or only a passing headline.