USD: Gradual decline as growth slows – BNP Paribas

BNP Paribas strategists expect the US economy to grow above potential in 2026, with GDP at 2.9% and inflation at 3.0%, keeping the Federal Reserve on hold after three cuts in 2025. They project the Fed Funds target range at 3.5%-3.75% through 2026. BNP Paribas strategists expect the US economy to grow above potential in 2026, with GDP… BNP Paribas strategists expect the US economy to grow above potential in 2026, with GDP at 2.9% and inflation at 3.0%, keeping the Federal Reserve on hold after three cuts in 2025. They project the Fed Funds target range at 3.5%-3.75% through 2026. BNP Paribas strategists expect the US economy to grow above potential in 2026, with GDP at 2.9% and inflation at 3.0%, keeping the Federal Reserve on hold after three cuts in 2025. They project the Fed Funds target range at 3.5%-3.75% through 2026. Against this backdrop, strategists expect the Dollar to continue depreciating versus the Euro.Fed on hold as Dollar softens"The US economy is expected to grow above its potential… For traders, the practical value is less about the headline alone and more about how it changes context, sentiment and the quality of the next decision. Watch follow-through, not just the first reaction: liquidity, volatility and confirmation across related assets usually tell the real story.