ECB: Market pricing challenges Lagarde stance – ING

ING strategists Michiel Tukker and Benjamin Schroeder note that markets continue to price two to three European Central Bank (ECB) rate hikes in 2026, with April odds still elevated. They stress that the ECB must balance data dependence with managing expectations along the curve. ING strategists Michiel Tukker and Benjamin Schroeder note that markets continue to price two… ING strategists Michiel Tukker and Benjamin Schroeder note that markets continue to price two to three European Central Bank (ECB) rate hikes in 2026, with April odds still elevated. They stress that the ECB must balance data dependence with managing expectations along the curve. ING strategists Michiel Tukker and Benjamin Schroeder note that markets continue to price two to three European Central Bank (ECB) rate hikes in 2026, with April odds still elevated. They stress that the ECB must balance data dependence with managing expectations along the curve. They highlight Oil as a key variable and see risks of policy action to prevent a price spiral.ECB walks tightrope on expectations"Markets are appreciating US efforts… For traders, releases like this can quickly shift rate expectations, currency direction, index futures and broad risk sentiment. Watch the next move in the dollar, front-end yields and index futures to see whether the market prices this release as a true surprise or only a passing headline.