BOJ re-estimates Japan's estimated natural rate of interest after review

According to its latest data, the natural interest rate is estimated in a range of around -0.9% to +0.5% Using latest data, the estimate of the natural rate of interest is around -0.9% to +0.5%That estimate is as of Q3 2025BOJ latest estimation is based on six models, including time-series and structural modelsAlthough the range itself has not… All that being said though, the BOJ does note that "there are many caveats when it comes to its (natural rate estimate) use in actual policy conduct". Adding that it is also still difficult to pin down the level of natural rate of interest in advance. But based on the statistical evidence, the BOJ will work with that to adjust the degree of monetary accommodation towards sustainably achieving its 2% price target. For traders, releases like this can quickly shift rate expectations, currency direction, index futures and broad risk sentiment. Watch the next move in the dollar, front-end yields and index futures to see whether the market prices this release as a true surprise or only a passing headline.