Germany: War-driven energy shock risks ECB hike – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Senior Economist Dr. Ralph Solveen notes that Germany’s inflation rate rose from 1.9% to 2.7% in March 2026 as energy prices surged due to the war in Iran, while core inflation stayed at 2.5%. Commerzbank’s Senior Economist Dr. Ralph Solveen notes that Germany’s inflation rate rose from 1.9% to 2.7% in March 2026 as energy prices surged… Commerzbank’s Senior Economist Dr. Ralph Solveen notes that Germany’s inflation rate rose from 1.9% to 2.7% in March 2026 as energy prices surged due to the war in Iran, while core inflation stayed at 2.5%. Commerzbank’s Senior Economist Dr. Ralph Solveen notes that Germany’s inflation rate rose from 1.9% to 2.7% in March 2026 as energy prices surged due to the war in Iran, while core inflation stayed at 2.5%. He stresses that second-round effects are not yet visible but business surveys show rising price expectations. Commerzbank expects the ECB to respond with a 25 basis point rate hike in late April.War impact lifts German… For traders, releases like this can quickly shift rate expectations, currency direction, index futures and broad risk sentiment. Watch the next move in the dollar, front-end yields and index futures to see whether the market prices this release as a true surprise or only a passing headline.