Goldman Sachs raises its US recession probability

Wall Street Journal reports that Goldman Sachs is raising its recessionary probability to 30% up 5% from its prior estimate The Wall Street Journal is reporting that rising energy prices tied to Middle East tensions are beginning to reshape the economic outlook, with Goldman Sachs warning that higher oil and gas costs, tighter financial conditions, and fading fiscal… The Wall Street Journal is reporting that rising energy prices tied to Middle East tensions are beginning to reshape the economic outlook, with Goldman Sachs warning that higher oil and gas costs, ... The Wall Street Journal is reporting that rising energy prices tied to Middle East tensions are beginning to reshape the economic outlook, with Goldman Sachs warning that higher oil and gas costs, tighter financial conditions, and fading fiscal support are increasing downside risks for growth while lifting recession probabilities. Recession risk rising: Goldman Sachs now sees a 30% chance of a U.S. recession within 12 months , up from prior… For traders, this matters because commodity headlines often feed directly into inflation expectations, sector rotation and currency pricing. Watch follow-through, not just the first reaction: liquidity, volatility and confirmation across related assets usually tell the real story.