IMF warns Iran war fuels inflation surge and global growth slowdown

The stagflation signal is bearish for global growth assets, supportive for commodities (especially oil), and complicates central bank paths, keeping rates higher for longer and adding downside risk to equities while supporting USD and safe havens. The IMF warns the Iran war is triggering a stagflation shock, with rising inflation and weaker growth, uneven global impacts, and limited… The IMF warns the Iran war is triggering a stagflation shock, with rising inflation and weaker growth, uneven global impacts, and limited policy room to respond. The IMF warns the Iran war is triggering a stagflation shock, with rising inflation and weaker growth, uneven global impacts, and limited policy room to respond. Summary: IMF warns Iran war is driving a global “negative supply shock” Inflation set to rise while growth slows; prior growth upgrade scrapped Three scenarios to be presented depending on ceasefire durability Central banks may be forced to tighten if inflation accelerates Impact highly… For traders, releases like this can quickly shift rate expectations, currency direction, index futures and broad risk sentiment. Watch the next move in the dollar, front-end yields and index futures to see whether the market prices this release as a true surprise or only a passing headline.