NZD: Hawkish pricing seen as demanding – OCBC

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has rallied on hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rhetoric and easing Oil risks, but warns markets may be overpricing tightening. OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has rallied on hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)… OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has rallied on hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rhetoric and easing Oil risks, but warns markets may be overpricing tightening. OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has rallied on hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rhetoric and easing Oil risks, but warns markets may be overpricing tightening. With a sizeable negative output gap and weak growth, NZD is expected to lag Australian Dollar (AUD). They project the RBNZ to start hiking only in 4Q26, with the policy rate at 2.75% by end-2026.RBNZ… For traders, the practical value is less about the headline alone and more about how it changes context, sentiment and the quality of the next decision. Watch follow-through, not just the first reaction: liquidity, volatility and confirmation across related assets usually tell the real story.