RBNZ sees 2026 growth if ceasefire holds, flags inflation still above target

RBNZ’s stance reinforces a cautious hold bias, balancing improving growth signals against elevated inflation. NZD may stay sensitive to oil and risk sentiment, while rate expectations remain conditional on whether energy-driven inflation proves temporary. RBNZ sees growth recovery if ceasefire holds, but inflation risks remain elevated.Summary:RBNZ Governor expects economic growth in 2026 High-frequency data shows early-year momentum improving… RBNZ sees growth recovery if ceasefire holds, but inflation risks remain elevated. . Summary: . RBNZ Governor expects economic growth in 2026 High-frequency data shows early-year momentum improving... RBNZ sees growth recovery if ceasefire holds, but inflation risks remain elevated. Summary: RBNZ Governor expects economic growth in 2026 High-frequency data shows early-year momentum improving March stable but April likely softer amid geopolitical tensions Growth outlook tied to Middle East ceasefire holding Fuel price decline seen as key support for recovery RBNZ held cash rate at 2.25% this week Inflation forecast at 4.2%, above 1–3% target band Supply chain… For traders, releases like this can quickly shift rate expectations, currency direction, index futures and broad risk sentiment. Watch the next move in the dollar, front-end yields and index futures to see whether the market prices this release as a true surprise or only a passing headline.